Trump freezes out EU at inauguration

GREETINGS and welcome to Playbook. This is Nick Vinocur. We’ll get into Donald Trump’s inauguration and what it means for Europe, but first a quick update from Israel, where a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas is now in effect after 15 months of war.

Hostage deal: Three hostages — Romi Gonen, Emily Damari and Doron Steinbrecher — were released and reunited with their families after 471 days of captivity. Meanwhile, Israel released 90 Palestinian prisoners and hundreds of aid trucks entered Gaza.

Shaky ground: However, the overall deal to exchange 33 hostages for more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners remains vulnerable. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stressed over the weekend that the cease-fire is temporary. “If we must return to fighting, we will do that in new, forceful ways,” he said. The Associated Press has the latest.

DRIVING THE DAY: TRUMP INAUGURATION

EU SHIVERS AS DONALD TRUMP SWORN IN: Here we go. At 6 p.m. Brussels time, on what’s forecast to be a bitterly cold day in Washington, Donald Trump is due to be sworn in as the 47th U.S. president.

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Brrrr: Due to the cold — it’s expected to be minus 4C — organizers have moved the ceremony inside the Capitol building to avoid people freezing outside. It’s the first time a presidential inauguration will be held indoors since Ronald Reagan began his second term 40 years ago. The last-minute change has prompted a scramble to fit hundreds of dignitaries into the Rotunda for the oath-of-office ceremony. But many loyal Trump fans who’ve traveled to Washington for the inauguration will be left out in the cold.

Sneak preview: Trump appeared at a victory rally at a basketball arena in Washington last night that had the feel of one of his MAGA campaign events, according to a write-up by the AP. He promised swift action on restricting border crossings, promoting oil drilling and eliminating diversity programs. “We’re going to give them the best first day, the biggest first week and the most extraordinary first 100 days of any presidency in American history,” he promised. The Village People closed the rally with a rendition of “Y.M.C.A.,” with Trump dancing onstage.

What will Trump say in his inaugural address? Back in 2017, Trump freaked out many of his guests by delivering the now infamous “American Carnage” address penned by his advisers Steve Bannon and Stephen Miller, prompting George W. Bush to quip: “That was some weird shit.” Bannon told ABC that his speech this time will strike a less sinister tone and aim to “bring the country together.”

Day 1: Trump on Sunday promised to enact “close to 100” executive orders on his first day back in the Oval Office, CNN reported last night. But for all the bluster about the sweeping changes he’s planning, Trump’s advisers are still debating key aspects of many of his top policies and there are significant impediments to carrying out his executive orders. My U.S. colleagues have a handy guide to major actions expected in the early days, including on immigration, foreign policy and trade.

What is Europe expecting? Friedrich Merz, the frontrunner to be Germany’s next chancellor, said over the weekend that Trump would bring “clarity” for the EU as well as various challenges. “I think Trump is very predictable,” Merz said. But Robert Habeck, Germany’s economy minister, and the Greens’ lead candidate for chancellor in the Feb. 23 election, warned that Trump’s threatened tariffs would “particularly hit the German economy.” And Germany’s diplomats are bracing for “maximum disruption” of democratic norms, according to a confidential memo written by Andreas Michaelis, Germany’s ambassador to the U.S., and obtained by Reuters.

No go zone: What’s clear at the outset of Trump’s second term is that he isn’t focused on the EU per se. Despite invitations to the inauguration going out to leaders ranging from Xi Jinping to El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele, none of the EU’s top representatives — including Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, European Council President António Costa or top diplomat Kaja Kallas — were invited. The EU’s representative to D.C., Jovita Neliupšienė, will be present.

Reading the room: Instead, Trumpworld opened its arms to right-wing populist and far-right politicians from Belgium to Portugal. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni — a “fantastic woman,” per Trump — is by far the highest-profile European politician to have confirmed their attendance. (Hungary’s Viktor Orbán won’t be there, as his team said he never got an invitation, and neither will France’s Marine Le Pen.) Read this for the names of every far-right politician who will be in D.C. today.

Icy start: Here in Brussels, officials are braced for a return to trade war with the United States, with a truce on retaliatory tariffs set to expire at the end of March. “In case things get nasty, the EU can resort to its growing arsenal of trade defense tools,” writes my trade colleague Camille Gijs. “This trade ‘bazooka’ could be used in response to any threat by Trump to trigger tariffs.” Don’t miss our global roundup of how countries from Canada to China are preparing for relations with Trump 2.0.

Busy signal: The looming trade war …. Europe’s recent exchanges with Trump over Greenland … the absence of EU leaders at the inauguration … all highlight the disconnect between Trump and the EU establishment. Von der Leyen and her top aide, Björn Siebert, had strong ties with President Joe Biden’s administration, particularly with national security adviser Jake Sullivan. But those relationships could work against VDL’s team during Trump 2.0, as the president shuns Biden-era figures and boosts populists. 

Indeed: Top EU officials are scrambling to figure out who to speak to in Trumpworld: “At the moment we are trying to map out who within the White House and the State Department actually has access to Trump. People have an interest in talking up how close they are,” said an EU diplomat.

Easy does it: For now, the EU is being ultra-cautious, avoiding any big flare-up over Greenland or Elon Musk’s interference in EU politics and taking a slowly-slowly approach to enforcing digital rules against Big Tech. (It’s the wrong approach to use against “Darwinists” like Trump, Brussels’ former top diplomat Josep Borrell argued in El Pais over the weekend.) 

The bottom line: Trump’s inauguration may not feature a repeat of the bizarre “Carnage” spectacle from 2017, but it’s still full of peril for the EU. Trump’s allies have made crystal clear whom they consider to be allies in Europe. The EU has its work cut out not just in devising a strategy to deal with Trump but also in figuring out how to communicate with the new administration. 

GERMANY’S EPP TAKEOVER       

SCOOP — WEBER TO SEEK REELECTION AFTER PRO-MERZ RALLY: Fresh off a display of power in Berlin, European People’s Party (EPP) chief Manfred Weber plans to seek reelection as president of the influential center-right party, Playbook’s Eddy Wax hears from a well-placed EPP source.

Seeking your support: Weber (who is both president of the pan-European party and chair of the EPP’s parliamentary group) informed EPP heavyweights at their leaders’ retreat in Berlin over the weekend of his intention to extend his time as president at the party’s congress in Valencia, Spain, in April.

Germany wins: In Berlin on Friday and Saturday, Weber hosted a gathering of center-right titans that included Ursula von der Leyen and the leaders of nine EU countries. “This was a show for Weber to prove that he has the OK of the Germans to run again as president and that he’s the top dog in Brussels,” said another EPP insider.

Red-tape bonfire: Following the meeting, the Brussels Bubble has been poring over an EPP statement adopted in Berlin which basically takes an axe to the past five years’ work on the Green Deal.

A close look shows the EPP is demanding further commitment to deregulation, taking aim explicitly at the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive and the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive, which were dubbed “excessive and burdensome.” The statement also calls for the taxonomy regulation and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism to be put on hold for at least two years while rejecting renewable energy targets, renovation obligations for homeowners and fines for companies that fail to reach 2025 emissions targets.

Where did this come from? The Christian Democratic Union, Merz’s party. Per the same EPP insider, the CDU took control of the statement and “reminded everybody who’s boss.” 

Merz incoming: That may be a tough pill to swallow for von der Leyen, who’s ostensibly bound by the EPP statement. It speaks volumes about how things are likely to change in Europe after Germany’s Feb. 23 election, when Merz looks set to become the most powerful conservative at the EU leaders’ table.

ECOFIN       

TRUMP CASTS A SHADOW OVER ECOFIN: The EU’s finance ministers will wargame the bloc’s future relations with President-elect Trump over dinner in Brussels while his inauguration unfolds in Washington.

“This is a great occasion to reflect on this matter,” Polish Finance Minister Andrzej Domański wrote in a letter inviting fellow ministers to the informal dinner ahead of the Economic and Financial Affairs Council meeting Tuesday. Ministers will be treated to salsify with walnuts and a hollandaise sauce, Polish duck confit parmentier, orange salad and apples. “It’s a Slavic hospitality fest,” said an EU diplomat.

Polish wishlist: “Increased economic cooperation with the U.S. in energy, trade, or defense seems to be worth exploring,” Domański wrote in the invitation letter. But some of his colleagues are likely to convey a less pro-American message and insist instead on the EU’s need to cut dependence on Washington, my colleague Gregorio Sorgi writes in to report.

It’s economic security, stupid: Ministers will also brainstorm how to bring down energy prices across the bloc, informed by a report by the IMF’s Alfred Kammer. “We stand no chance competing with the rest of the world,” Domański wrote in the letter, and breathed new life into the decades-old idea of an “energy union.” Ukraine’s Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko will join his EU peers on Tuesday morning. 

**Experience the POLITICO Davos Party Online. POLITICO’s annual reception in the Swiss Alps is back on January 21. Watch live as policy, business and civil society leaders come together for networking, drinks and our signature sledge run to Davos Platz. Register now to stream the event online**

DAVOS       

TO THE SKI SLOPES: The annual gathering of the global elite kicks off at the World Economic Forum in Davos despite being overshadowed by Trump’s inauguration. (He’s due to address delegates virtually on Thursday). As our own Suzanne Lynch writes, the Davos set arrives on the Magic Mountain this year with a newfound swagger. Even as the rest of the world frets about Trump’s threats of a trade war, Wall Street has never had it so good.

Europe’s lose-lose choice: As they head to the Swiss Alps, EU leaders are anxious about Trump’s saber-rattling and their China-reliant economies. Camille Gijs and Giovanna Coi report.

The haves and have-nots: Oxfam published its annual Davos report this morning and the result ain’t pretty if you’re not super-rich. Billionaire wealth grew by $2 trillion last year — three times faster than the year before. Meanwhile, the number of people living in poverty — about 3.5 billion — has barely changed since 1990. 

A question of trust: Edelman’s annual trust barometer also contains some warnings for our political leaders. The majority of respondents to the annual survey, which charts the level of trust among the public for institutions, believe that government and business harm them and serve narrow interests — and four in 10 approve of hostile activism to bring about change.

To follow all the news from Davos throughout the week, make sure you’re signed up to Global Playbook.

IN OTHER NEWS       

TIKTOK (BRIEFLY) GOES DARK: TikTok stopped working in the U.S. late on Saturday, in compliance with a federal ban that the Chinese-owned platform hopes the incoming administration will reconsider. But last night it was back, restoring access to American users hours after President-elect Trump promised to issue an executive order that would allow its parent company more time to sell its U.S. operation. The company thanked Trump “for providing the necessary clarity and assurance.” 

Europe urged to consider ban: After the app briefly went dark in the U.S., Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said the EU should consider following in Washington’s footsteps and ban TikTok on the Continent. “There is a legitimate concern that the data could end up in the hands of Chinese authorities, Tsahkna said, pointing to last year’s annual report by the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service (EFIS) that said the information collected by TikTok could be used for intelligence gathering, blackmail or cyberattacks. 

Just buy it: The potential sale of TikTok’s U.S. service is an “ideal opportunity” for the EU to buy the app, the German Green MEP Sergei Lagodinsky argued in a paper seen by POLITICO. “The EU Commission should immediately establish a public-private partnership consortium equipped with the financial resources and legal framework needed to acquire existing platforms like TikTok,” Lagodinsky wrote.

TRUMP’S “VIETNAM”: Donald Trump is in danger of being sucked into Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine and it could be just as damaging to his presidency as the Vietnam War was to Richard Nixon’s, his former chief strategist Steve Bannon said in a wide-ranging interview.

AGENDA       

— European Parliament’s plenary session in Strasbourg. Parliament President Roberta Metsola presides over the opening at 5 p.m.;  presides over the European Parliament’s Bureau at 6 p.m. MEPs debate the ceasefire in Gaza at 5:30 p.m. …fighting global warming at 6 p.m… advancing the fusion industry for energy independence and innovation at 7 p.m. Watch.

— Council President António Costa meets Managing Director of the European Stability Mechanism Pierre Gramegna at 10 a.m.; meets Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim at 12 a.m.

— Eurogroup meeting. Agenda.

— Italy’s President Giorgia Meloni is in Washington attending U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration. 

— EU High Representative Kaja Kallas receives Egypt’s Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty.

— Budget Commissioner Piotr Serafin meets Spain’s Economy Minister Carlos Cuerpo; Lithuania’s Finance Minister Rimantas Šadžius; Estonia’s Finance Minister Jürgen Ligi; and Latvia’s Finance Minister Arvils Ašeradens.

— Commission Executive Vice President Stéphane Séjourné meets Jörg Kukies, Germany’s finance minister, at 5:45 p.m.; attends the Ecofin dinner at 7 p.m.

— Commission Executive Vice President Teresa Ribera participates in the Forum Europa Brussels Breakfast; and meets Carlos Cuerpo, Spain’s economy minister.

— Economy ​​Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis meets Pierre Gramegna, managing director of the European Stability Mechanism; meets Jörg Kukies, Germany’s finance minister.

— Financial Services Commissioner Maria Luís Albuquerque receives Nadia Calviño, president of the European Investment Bank; receives Eelco Heinen, the Netherlands’ minister of finance and his Cypriot counterpart Makis Keravnos.

— Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius meets with Jorg Kukies, Germany’s finance minister; participates in the meeting of NATO North Atlantic Council.

— Crisis Management Commissioner Hadja Lahbib is in Turkey, where she meets Thomas Hans Ossowski, EU ambassador to Türkey; Turkey’s Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz, Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan.

— Migration Commissioner Magnus Brunner in Paris, France; meets Bruno Retailleau, France’s interior minister.

BRUSSELS CORNER       

WEATHER: High of 1C, but the sun might make a guest appearance. 

“CONCLAVE“ AIMS TO BE EUROPE’S “PRE-DAVOS”: After a three-day gathering in Brussels attended by European Council President António Costa, the Conclave summit organized by think tank EuropaNova will now be held annually and aims to become a regular stopover for Europe’s elite. “It will be a pre-Davos gathering, most likely in Brussels,” Guillaume Klossa, head of EuropaNova, told Playbook.

ECR OPENS UP: The European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group chair will address the news media on Tuesday morning, which other political group leaders customarily do during Strasbourg’s plenary sessions. “It is a test, let’s see how it goes, and maybe we make it permanent,” ECR spokesperson Michael Strauss told my colleague Max Griera. 

FOOD REVIEW: Chez Mymy serves fresh, delicious Asian food in a convenient location, writes POLITICO’s Sonya Angelica Diehn.

BIRTHDAYS: MEPs Kateřina Konečná, Ewa Zajączkowska-Hernik, Billy Kelleher and Malik Azmani; economist Peter Praet; former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley; EEAS’s Tony Agotha; Queen Mathilde of Belgium; former Ukrainian PM Volodymyr Groysman; ICF’s Adrien Borisavljević; journalist Joan Tilouine; Israeli politician Natan Sharansky; astronaut Buzz Aldrin.

THANKS TO: Playbook editor Alex Spence, reporter Šejla Ahmatovićand producer Dean Southwell.

**A Message from the Coalition for App Fairness: Enforcement of the Digital Markets Act will benefit countless businesses in Europe and around the world. Ending Apple and Google’s stranglehold over the mobile app economy will give European consumers the choice to download apps where they want, and pay for digital goods and services how they want. By bringing freedom to the app stores, the EU will unleash innovation, drive down prices, and protect consumers from mobile app monopolists. Enforcement benefits all Europeans, and will empower businesses from around the world to compete fairly. Learn more about why this matters.**

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