Everton vs Liverpool: Opposition Analysis The Last Goodison ...

David Moyes’ new-look Everton crashed out of the FA Cup at the weekend, bringing to a close a run of three consecutive wins under the Scot. Against Bournemouth, what had worked spectacularly in the club’s 4-0 demolition of Leicester City in the previous match, was taken away. The Cherries blocked off passing routes into Beto and pressured the hosts’ attempts to pass out from the back.

James Tarkowski’s first-half errors consigned the Blues to defeat, but the team played much better after the restart and substitutes Jack Harrison, Tim Iroegbunam and - in particular, debutant Carlos Alcaraz - all made a positive impression. So, with morale not having taken too much of a hit, comes the visit of Liverpool for the rearranged Merseyside derby — the last at Goodison Park.

Form

It was the end of an era on the red side of Merseyside, as Jürgen Klopp finally departed, to be replaced by Feyenoord’s Arne Slot. The team had finished the campaign in third spot, way behind Arsenal and champions Manchester City, but spent circumspectly in the summer, bringing in only 23-year-old goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili (Valencia, €30m) as incumbent Alisson’s long-term replacement, along with Federico Chiesa (Juventus, €12m). The Georgian stopper has remained at the La Liga club as part of the deal, whereas the Italian winger has featured only sparingly. Liverpool offset the expenditure by raising €47m through sales of fringe squad members.

What can be said about the Reds’ campaign to date? Well, despite most feeling there’d be a dip post-Klopp, if anything Liverpool have taken it up another level. They've resembled a relentless winning machine, rather like Pep Guardiola’s City has in recent years, instead of a team entering a difficult transition. Much credit has to go to the club’s recruitment, which had forged a deep squad full of quality and energy, but obviously it has to be acknowledged what a job Slot has done, in guiding the team six points clear of the Gunners in the Premier League and having finished top of the new format Champions League table, ahead of the upcoming knockout rounds.

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So far they have lost just four games, across all competitions: a shock early season Premier League reverse at Anfield to surprise package Nottingham Forest; an EFL Cup first leg Semi-Final loss to Tottenham Hotspur (handily swept aside in the second leg); a meaningless final league stage game in Europe; and a shock FA Cup road exit to relative minnows Plymouth Argyle. In both of those last two setbacks, Liverpool fielded heavily-rotated sides. They arrive rested at Goodison tonight and in unarguably imperious form, unfortunately — having actually accrued more points on the road, than at Anfield.

Style of Play

Slot has utilize a 4-2-3-1 formation almost exclusively in the league, though he’s used a 4-3-3 on occasion, mostly in Europe and the domestic cup competitions. As he’s freely admitted, the transition between Klopp and himself has gone smoothly precisely because the two aren’t too dissimilar. The Dutchman has introduced a few tactical tweaks, but the main difference has been that he favours a more controlled, measured approach, in comparison to the German’s famed high-intensity gegenpressing technique.

They still play progressively, with aggression and a high defensive line, though Slot presses more selectively than his all-action predecessor and looks to use a single defensive pivot in possession, with front players swapping position during passing sequences. The visitors rank third in terms of possession (58.0%) and favour a balanced attack, with a slight preference for the left side. They’ve completed 86.4% of their passes and tend to favour keeping it on the deck; only 8.3% of their passing goes long.

The Reds lead the division in attempts on goal, with 17.9 per 90 minutes; they also rank top in terms of xG (53.9) and goals scored (56). In contrast to the Blues (zero), Liverpool are tied for first as regards scoring goals from counterattacks (ten), though they have lacked threat from set-pieces, with just three goals (19th ranked). Unsurprisingly, they are also joint top in penalties converted (six). Defensively, the visitors are stingy, allowing just 9.6 attempts per 90. They conceded the fewest goals in the division (21) — in line with an xGA of 20.8. They show no statistical susceptibility to any type of goal threat.

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Player Assessment

Mohamed Salah is enjoying a bumper campaign, at the age of 32. The Egyptian superstar is way ahead of his teammates as the league’s leading scorer (21 goals) and provider of assists (13). The wide forward has bagged three from his last two league matches and is posting an SCA (Shot-Creating Actions) statistic of 4.83 per 90. He wins 48.1% of his 3.6 dribbles, provides 2.31 key passes and carries the ball into the opposition area 3.82 times per 90.

Playing as a deep-lying midfielder under Slot, Ryan Gravenberch has been a revelation. Acting as a single pivot, he’s leading the team in interceptions (1.81) and ball recoveries (5.66) per 90. He has the combination of athleticism, technical ability and strength required for the role, which the new manager identified soon after taking over.

Solution

I’d predicted a 3-1 defeat for the hosts for when this game was originally scheduled to be played, in December, but whilst Liverpool are as relentless as ever, the Blues are a different side under their new boss, so I feel they have more of a chance in this rearranged fixture. Unlike Bournemouth, the Reds will play a higher line, potentially giving Beto more opportunities to get in behind. I also fancy Jesper Lindstrøm and Iliman Ndiaye to run at Andy Robertson and whoever lines up at right back for the visitors — possibly Conor Bradley, with Trent Alexander-Arnold a late fitness call for the game.

I don’t see Moyes changing the lineup, unless Vitaliy Mykolenko can make it back from the slight issue which kept him out of the cup game at the weekend. I hope the Ukrainian is able to go, because he’s done a good job of limiting Salah in the past, and stand-in Ashley Young figures to have major problems with the Liverpool talisman otherwise. Despite Alcaraz impressing off the bench on Saturday, Abdoulaye Doucouré’s energy out of possession figures to be an important part of the way Everton set up, with the Malian looking to put pressure on Gravenberch, disrupting the opposition buildup.

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This fixture now being a night match should help the Toffees out massively, with the fans bringing the atmosphere and hopefully helping not only to drive the team to greater efforts, but possibly even throwing the visitors off their game. On paper, Liverpool are in a different class, but we’ve been here before, with inferior Everton sides able to buck the form book at home and, if not winning all that often, then at least proving tough to beat. Despite the two clubs being in different places in recent years, it’s worth noting that the Reds have only beaten the Blues at Goodison twice in the last 12 visits, with no fewer than nine draws.

I feel this trend will continue tonight, with an energized home side feeding off the crowd and the occasion, to give Liverpool more than they’d have reckoned with, and doing enough to force another stalemate.

Prediction: Everton 1-1 Liverpool

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